The Complacent Centre Is Crumbling Across Europe

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BrusselsReport.eu
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By Derk Jan Eppink, a former Dutch MP and MEP

With the plummeting popularity of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the UK has become the third major country in Western Europe – after Germany and France – to find itself in a political deadlock. The popularity of the political leaders – Starmer, Merz and Macron – hovers around 15%. At the same time, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is acting like a reckless driver by legalising the status of around 500,000 illegal immigrants. Spain really ought to leave the Schengen Area.

The only other major, stable country in Western Europe is … Italy, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. One level down, the Netherlands, with its Jetten minority government, finds itself in a similar boat to the big three.

The general discontent became too great

The big three have electoral systems that keep the ‘extremes’ out; each country in its own way. In Britain, the candidate with the most votes wins; the rest are out. The Germans have a sophisticated system with a 5% threshold to keep smaller, radical parties out of parliament. It took the German Greens decades to get into the Bundestag. France puts everything on the line in presidential elections, with a second round between the two strongest candidates. A true clash.

The ‘self-protection system’ has the opposite effect when general discontent becomes too great. Radical opposition unites to break the complacent establishment. Nigel Farage demonstrated this last week with his ‘Reform UK’. Starting from almost nothing, he became the biggest winner in the British local elections.

I saw Farage rise to prominence in the European Parliament. His opponents invariably made the same mistake: underestimating him. He was laughed off by the European mandarins because he advocated Britain’s departure from the EU. That sounded like a ‘joke’. He started on the back benches with a single ally, won elections, formed a parliamentary group, and ended up in the front row. He used that position as a firing point against the EU. Brexit came, and Farage seemed redundant. He moved into British politics.

There, too, he was laughed at. The British political system was dominated by Labour and the Conservatives. Once again, the laughter died down because his Reform UK focused entirely on ‘immigration’, the top priority for most voters.

Earlier this month, Farage took a significant number of votes away from both Labour and the Conservatives: Reform UK even became the largest party. If a general election were held today, Farage would become Prime Minister of Great Britain.

Macron squeezed out by the right and the left

The same pattern in France. In the local elections last March, Marine Le Pen’s ‘Rassemblement National’ achieved a major breakthrough. The number of RN mayors rose from 827 in 2020 to around 3,000 this year. RN also made significant gains in medium-sized towns. Large cities such as Paris usually vote left-wing. In France, Macron’s incompetent ‘centre’ is being squeezed out by the right. And at the same time by the left, led by a figurehead such as Jean-Luc Mélenchon: a Stone Age socialist, whose support base consists of 70% ‘Muslim votes’. He actually personifies ‘Islamo-socialism’.

Marine Le Pen’s participation in the presidential elections is uncertain. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office accuses her of ‘misuse’ of European funds for national election campaigns. The French court will deliver its verdict. If found guilty, she will be unable to stand in the presidential elections next April. Marine Le Pen would be a strong candidate. Her biggest drawback is her surname.

Princess Maria-Carolina de Bourbon

The backup plan is already in place. Jordan Bardella, originally from the Parisian suburbs, entered the Le Pen family via a cousin of Marine’s, Nolwenn Olivier. The relationship lasted four years. In the meantime, Bardella became a household name. In April, Paris Match revealed that Bardella is in a relationship with Princess Maria-Carolina de Bourbon des Deux-Siciles (22). The man from the Parisian banlieue and his princess: a fairy tale. It could free Bardella from the ‘Le Pen stigma’ that clung to Marine. But: last week, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office announced from Luxembourg that it was also launching an investigation into Bardella for the ‘misuse’ of EU funds for media training. The timing is no coincidence.

The presidential elections will be tough, and especially in the second round: ‘left versus right’. Excessive migration, cultural alienation and collective impoverishment are the main themes. What looms is a result in the second round that is so close that the loser will not accept the outcome. Great Britain is a country of traditions; France a country of revolution.

The French political centre has lost its legitimacy and may well face a showdown in Paris.

Weimar Republic

And yet Germany is more worrying. Germans want to make everything ‘todsicher’. Above all, no uncertainty. That is precisely what is looming. Germany is heading towards a situation reminiscent of that during the Weimar Republic (1918–1933). That republic collapsed into chaos. The ‘political centre’ that governs Germany (Christian Democrats CDU/CSU, Social Democrats SPD and Liberals FDP) has shrunk significantly. The challenger is Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which draws its electoral support mainly from eastern Germany and is performing increasingly well in western Germany. Like Farage and Le Pen/Bardella, the AfD is making its mark on the issue of migration.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU) governs with the Social Democratic SPD. The liberal FDP did not return to the Bundestag because the party failed to clear the electoral threshold. Merz has ruled out the AfD and is dependent on the SPD, which is putting a spanner in the works when it comes to stricter immigration policy and, above all, socio-economic austerity. In this way, the SPD is blocking Merz, who has no alternative due to his outright exclusion of the AfD.

Voters can tear down the ‘firewall’

The AfD stands at 28%; the CDU/CSU at 23%; the SPD at 13%. However, the latter party faces competition from the Greens (13%) and Die Linke (10%). A dilemma: if the SPD moves too far towards the centre, it loses ground to the Greens and Die Linke, but as soon as the CDU/CSU concedes too much to the SPD, the AfD gains ground across Germany. Merz is stuck in a rut and his popularity ratings have plummeted.

Elections are due to be held this autumn in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD stands at 41%, the CDU at 26%, the SPD at 7% and Die Linke at 12%. The 5% electoral threshold now works in favour of the radical newcomer and against the established parties. If the SPD finishes below 5%, it will not win any seats and the AfD could just secure a majority with the seats that become available. In that case, the electorate will tear down the ‘firewall’, the agreement between the established parties to exclude the AfD.

It could be even worse. The Bavarian CSU is still just above 5% in the polls at national level. If this party, once led by the legendary Franz-Joseph Strauss, falls below 5% in the Bundestag elections, it will receive fewer seats and the CDU will drop to 17%.

At that point, the system, with its corrective mechanisms, will collapse because the electoral threshold works against traditional parties. The extremes will squeeze out the centre. Merz will be powerless, caught in the SPD’s stranglehold. If the CDU does team up with the AfD, it will fall apart. The ‘social wing’ of the CDU will then rise up in revolt. The liberal FDP cannot help, as it no longer clears the 5% electoral threshold. New elections will boost the AfD, whilst the CDU faces a turbulent phase in appointing a new ‘Kanzlerkandidat’.

Germany is adrift

In the corridors of power, the Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hendrik Wüst (50), has been warming up for a while. He hails from the vicinity of the German town of Bocholt, close to the Dutch border. The CDU must win the elections and the CSU must remain afloat in order to lead the formation of a coalition in Berlin. But from Bavaria, Minister-President Markus Söder (59) could step forward, with a right-wing profile, to keep the CSU above the 5% threshold.

In short: Merz no longer knows what, how or where to go. Germany is adrift.

 

Originally published in Dutch by Wynia’s Week.

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