How Europe is coping with Trump: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression and Acceptance

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By Peter De Keyzer, Founding partner of Growth Inc

Psychologists distinguish five stages to process trauma: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Denial, disbelief and numbness were often seen in the run-up to the US presidential election. Wishful thinking, silently hoping that Trump would not make it. Denial is a buffer against harsh reality, a psychological shield to absorb the initial shock.

When reality sets in, denial turns into anger. It is an expression of powerlessness, an attempt to get a grip on a situation that escapes control. Bargaining is the next stage. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, for instance, already suggested buying more US gas to avoid US punitive tariffs. Depression is now seen in many places. Great analyses about the end of the European Era of Prosperity. Gloomy predictions about the start of a dark period: the return of totalitarianism, the rise of extreme parties and the slide towards irrelevance.

Acceptance and following through, that is where we need to get to. How can we stand on our own two feet as soon as possible? We hear a lot about strategic autonomy for the European Union, but what does that really mean? First, we will have to double our defence spending, and fast. With palpable consequences for those who don’t. Countries that do not contribute at least 2.5 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to collective defence should lose voting rights, veto power or European money.

Out-of-the-box solutions

European leadership also means less national sovereignty. It is inconceivable that a country like Belgium continues to posture over the formation of a new government. The irresponsible behaviour of Belgian politicians increases the risk of financial instability and threatens the prosperity of the entire union. The European Union can no longer tolerate this kind of free-rider behaviour. Countries like Belgium are more likely to go into receivership.

It also means more out-of-the-box solutions. Why are we still thinking about the France-Germany axis? Those two countries are at a standstill, and Germany is economically comatose. They are incapable of lifting the European Union higher. Why not give more weight to Poland – in this case Donald Tusk – to represent Europe? Both militarily and economically, that’s where it’s happening.

It also means aiming for a more unified European market. Our economic and industrial leaders are national giants but global dwarfs. If every country resists takeovers from other EU countries, we will never have European global champions. For Belgium, it means we will see some of our crown jewels disappear into foreign hands. That is inevitable. So be it. It will be individual submission or collective demise.

Draghi report

Last but not least, we also need large-scale deregulation. Europe today accounts for 5.6 per cent of the world’s population and 14 per cent of global GDP. Those two numbers will keep falling over the next few decades. What does it matter if Europe becomes the global climate champion tomorrow if it means we can shut down our industry? Or take the European Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive. European companies will soon have to produce tonnes of paper and checklists to show how sustainable they are. How much extra wealth will that bring? How much more relevant will it make us in the rest of the world? How will it contribute to growing global companies?

 

The faster we get to the stage of acceptance and follow-through, the faster we can build. Mario Draghi’s report illustrated how weak the European economy is, the election of Donald Trump how alone we will soon be. If there is one moment to prove that the European Union still has a future, it is today.

 

Originally published in Dutch by Belgian magazine Trends.

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