Home European Union The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Europe’s Stake in Gulf Security

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Europe’s Stake in Gulf Security

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By Matthew Robinson, Director of the Euro-Gulf Information Centre

The GCC’s meeting with US President Donald Trump in New York offers a timely opportunity for the six Gulf countries to discuss their long-term strategy towards Iran and the future security of the region more broadly. Iranian activity directly threatens the security and economic interests of all GCC members, making these discussions as important for the Gulf as they are for the White House.

There is also a clear immediate priority for the GCC, maintaining regional stability during and after the current conflict with Iran. The consequences of the regional security crisis has been felt throughout the Arab Gulf, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman all exposed to attacks and disruption. The discussions with President Trump therefore provide an important opportunity to coordinate approaches, better understand the US’s thinking and consider how best to safeguard the Gulf’s long-term security and prosperity. 

The Trump Administration has indicated a desire to work closely with the GCC and has plans for a more robust and comprehensive approach to the GCC in the future. This developing relationship can only benefit both parties by enhancing the mutual interests of both the GCC and the US. The Strait of Hormuz is critical to this process; its closure or interruption has devastatingly affected the Gulf’s ability to export fossil fuels, and Qatar, as the world leader in LNG imports, will suffer the greatest harm because its overly-reliant on the Strait of Hormuz to transport LNG.

These are not challenges confined to the Gulf or to the US. Europe has a direct stake in the outcome of the Trump-GCC discussions because any disruption to the Gulf’s energy exports or the maritime routes connecting the region to European markets quickly translates into economic consequences across the continent. What happens in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea therefore has implications not only for Gulf security, but also for European energy security, trade and economic stability.

European dependency on the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea for energy supply, trade patterns, general shipping patterns, and overall energy supply line disruptions converts into higher fuel prices, increased shipping and insurance expenditures, increased distances from northern Europe to northwest Africa via the Red Sea, and increased costs to European businesses and households. An EU response should consider strategically escalating the EU’s engagement with the Gulf. The EU should build on its direct security presence in the Red Sea through Operation ASPIDES, growling important for security of trade routes. This is part of a larger European plan to work closer with GCC countries on maritime-related issues, better protect vital pieces of regional infrastructure, and improve its overall relationship with Gulf capitals.

Aside from the EU, there are also many reasons why the UK has a vested interest in getting involved. Specifically, Gulf security will be on the agenda of UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham when he meets with President Trump in person for the first time in New York. Prime Minister Burnham is likely to urge for de-escalation in the Iran conflict and greater freedom of movement for shipping within the Strait of Hormuz; this was a subject of their prior telephone discussions. For the new Prime Minister, the connection between security in the Gulf and economic security at home is becoming increasingly explicit. His recent announcement that the UK will offer military assistance to Saudi Arabia in the form of the Royal Air Force’s Voyager air refuelling for Saudi fighter jets defending the Kingdom and its energy infrastructure against Houthi attacks supported by Iran underscored this. The Prime Minister has been clear in the connection between the UK’s military support to Saudi Arabia and the UK’s economic interests, including keeping the region’s roads and maritime routes for trade and energy open to keep energy supplies flowing to the UK, and reduce the economic burden on domestic households and businesses in relation to energy price spikes.

The importance of this diplomatic engagement occurring simultaneously in New York cannot be overstated. At the Trump-GCC meeting, Trump will listen to the views of GCC leaders regarding the future of the conflict with Iran while Burnham will advocate on behalf of the UK for de-escalation, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and protection of British economic interests. This provides the UK with an opportunity to act as an important transatlantic partner and demonstrate that European states can play an active role in contributing to Gulf security, rather than simply being observers calling for stability from a distance.

In addition, the crisis in the Gulf represents a broader lesson for Europe. For a long time, European engagement with the Gulf has been broken down into several distinct areas of activity: trade, energy, diplomacy and security. The current situation in the Gulf illustrates that these different areas can no longer be viewed as compartmentalised. The economic security of Europe is becoming increasingly connected to the security of the Gulf.

The US must continue to engage with its Gulf partners closely regarding the future of the region. A sustainable post-war settlement, must include the GCC the centre of the decision-making process, not merely as participants at the negotiating table after all major decisions have already been made.
After all, the Gulf has felt the brunt of the Iranian attacks and a significant impact on their respective economies, while Saudi Arabia now faces renewed pressure from the Houthis in Yemen.

That principle should also shape how Europe approaches the Gulf. The EU and UK have a collective interest in supporting the region’s stability rather than simply responding to the consequences of instability ad hoc. The UK’s decision to provide defensive assistance to Saudi Arabia demonstrates this connection clearly, helping Saudi Arabia defend itself, its energy infrastructure and regional trade routes also helps protect British economic interests.

By consulting directly with GCC leaders in New York, while also meeting the new UK Prime Minister, Trump has an opportunity to bring the US, European and the Gulf capitals closer together around the immediate priorities of de-escalation with Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and containing the Houthi threat.

Europe has a direct stake in what comes next. Gulf security is European economic security: from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, the stability of these vital routes affects our energy supplies, trade and prosperity.

The US and GCC may be at the centre of the discussions in New York, but Europe cannot afford to remain on the sidelines.

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