Home European Union The EU Is Bracing for a Political Earthquake

The EU Is Bracing for a Political Earthquake

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Alice Weidel, co-chairwoman of AfD Copyright: By Elekes Andor - Own work, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=166893308

By former Dutch diplomat Johannes Vervloed

Next year, important elections will take place across large parts of the EU. These will be held in four large Member States (France, Italy, Poland and Spain) and in four smaller ones (Finland, Estonia, Greece and Slovakia). It is still too early to draw firm conclusions, but if the polls are correct, the EU is in for a political earthquake. The question is not so much whether the right will win, but to what extent. And whether the cordons sanitaires will hold.

German test case

We will soon see an initial indication of this in the German state elections in Saxony-Anhalt (6 September) and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (20 September). In both states, the AfD is well ahead in the polls; in Saxony-Anhalt, it stands at 43 per cent – more than double its share in the 2021 elections. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is the second-placed party in the polls there, with 23 per cent (down 14). There is a chance that the AfD will win enough seats in Saxony-Anhalt to form a government on its own. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD stands at 36 per cent in the polls (up 20), whilst the Social Democratic SPD is in second place with 29 per cent (down 10).

The main reasons for the AfD’s predicted gains are uncontrolled mass immigration and economic decline, partly as a result of the loss of cheap Russian gas. In national German polls, too, the AfD is well ahead, with figures of around 28 per cent.

In France, where the first round of the presidential election is due to take place on 18 April 2027, Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National (RN) is the frontrunner. In Poland, parliamentary elections are due to be held on 11 November 2027. The party of the current Prime Minister and former President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, is in danger of losing out to the right-wing opposition.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is also facing challenges from rivals, including the popular General Roberto Vannacci, who is making rapid headway with his new party, Futuro Nazionale. But that is competition on the right. Meloni has nothing to fear from the left or the Christian centrist party.

In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is on his last legs. His Socialist Party is plagued by corruption scandals. The Catalan pro-independence party led by Carles Puigdemont, who lives in exile and helped Sánchez secure a majority in the Spanish parliament, has already announced that it no longer wishes to work with him. The conservative Partido Popular is set to make gains and may be able to form a new government together with the right-wing populist VOX.

In Finland, Estonia, Greece and Slovakia, we are seeing a similar picture. There too, (coalition) governments comprising left-wing and centrist parties will probably no longer be possible after next year’s elections.

Fear and trepidation

In Brussels, all this is being viewed with fear and trepidation. For not only will (centre-)right-wing governments pursue different policies at home; it will also have enormous consequences for the EU. The ‘Ever Closer Union’ will come to a definitive standstill, and even renationalisation (the reclaiming of powers that had been transferred to the European Commission) cannot be ruled out.

Even a seismic shift in the German political landscape, set in motion by Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, will already have a significant impact, including on Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s stance on key EU issues. Starting with the debate on the EU budget for the next seven years, the so-called Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). This must be finalised by the end of this year. The European Commission had hoped that Germany, as the leading ‘frugal’ country, would ultimately agree to a substantial increase in the multiannual budget. But with the AfD breathing down his neck, Merz might well make a different choice.

A shift to the right across Europe will have a major impact on both national and EU issues. Climate policy will be scaled back to save European industry from collapse. The call for cheaper energy will grow ever louder. Nuclear power stations – and probably coal-fired power stations too, and certainly gas-fired ones – will remain in operation for longer. EU enlargement, particularly as regards Ukraine’s accession, will be put ‘on hold’. And mass immigration – the main reason why Europeans are voting increasingly to the right – will presumably (at last) be tackled.

Voilà, a fundamentally different course from what we have become accustomed to in recent years.

A clear trend

Of course, we can be certain of nothing when it comes to the future of Europe. ‘Events, dear boy, events’, were the famous words of British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan (1957–1963) when asked how the forthcoming general election for the House of Commons would turn out. The trend, however, is clear. The population in most EU Member States – and, not insignificantly, particularly in the larger ones – has had enough of mass immigration, expensive energy, and unnecessary economic decline caused by rigorous climate policy and the regulatory burden from Brussels.

 

Originally published in Dutch by Wynia’s Week.

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