By Ganimat Zahid, President of ASİMKOM, the Coordination Centre of Azerbaijani Political Emigrants
The case of Azerbaijan exposes the tension between the European Union’s geopolitical ambitions and its commitment to democratic values.
The European Union seeks to strengthen its energy security, develop alternative transport routes and expand its influence in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is an important partner in this strategy. Yet a fundamental question remains: can Europe pursue its strategic interests without relegating political freedoms and human rights to a secondary concern?
The Return of Geopolitics and Europe’s Dilemma
The European Union’s foreign policy has undergone significant changes in recent years. Russia’s war against Ukraine, the need to diversify energy supplies and intensifying global competition have prompted Brussels to approach neighbouring regions increasingly through a geopolitical lens. Energy resources, transport corridors, security cooperation and regional stability now rank among the principal priorities of European policy.
The rationale behind this shift is clear. The EU seeks to protect its economy and security, reduce dependence on external suppliers and establish itself as a more autonomous actor on the international stage. Yet the increasingly demanding geopolitical environment raises a difficult question about the democratic principles that have long underpinned European foreign policy: to what extent should violations of political freedoms be tolerated in the pursuit of strategic partnerships?
Azerbaijan offers one of the clearest illustrations of this dilemma.
Why Azerbaijan Matters to Europe
Azerbaijan’s importance to the European Union extends well beyond energy cooperation. The country occupies a strategically significant position connecting the Caspian basin with Europe. Gas supplies through the Southern Gas Corridor, the development of the Middle Corridor and the South Caucasus’s role in regional transport networks make Baku an important partner for Brussels.
In July 2022, the European Commission and Azerbaijan signed a Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy. The agreement envisaged expanding the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor, with the objective of delivering at least 20 billion cubic metres of gas annually to the EU by 2027. This ambitious target formed part of Europe’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian gas.
Source: [European Commission — Southern Gas Corridor, 3 February 2023](https://energy.ec.europa.eu/news/commissioner-simson-azerbaijan-co-chair-9th-southern-gas-corridor-advisory-council-2023-02-03_en)
In March 2026, a meeting between European Council President António Costa and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reaffirmed the commitment to expanding cooperation on energy, security, transport and regional connectivity. Both sides also emphasised the importance of concluding negotiations on a new comprehensive bilateral agreement.
Source: [European Council — Joint Press Statement, 11 March 2026 (PDF)](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/et/press/press-releases/2026/03/11/joint-press-statement-by-president-of-the-european-council-antonio-costa-and-president-of-the-republic-of-azerbaijan-ilham-aliyev/pdf/)
Brussels therefore has legitimate and substantial reasons to deepen its cooperation with Baku. However, strategic importance cannot exempt a government from its human rights obligations. On the contrary, the more significant a partnership becomes, the more important the principles governing it should be.
Democratic Principles: Rhetoric or an Instrument of Foreign Policy?
The European Union presents itself not merely as an economic bloc and security actor, but also as a political project committed to defending human rights, democracy and the rule of law. These principles occupy a central place in the official documents and foreign policy declarations of European institutions.
Yet there is a considerable difference between proclaiming values and consistently applying them in practice.
This discrepancy is particularly apparent in relations with Azerbaijan. On the one hand, European institutions seek to expand cooperation on energy and transport. On the other, serious concerns continue to be raised about pressure on political opposition figures, journalists, civil society representatives and independent researchers.
In a resolution adopted on 18 December 2025, the European Parliament expressed grave concern over politically motivated arrests in Azerbaijan. It called for the release of political prisoners and urged that progress towards a future partnership agreement be linked to tangible improvements in human rights, the rule of law and respect for European values.
Source: [European Parliament — Resolution of 18 December 2025](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-10-2025-0339_EN.html)
On 8 October 2026, the European Parliament adopted a further resolution specifically addressing the cases of Ali Karimli, Anar Mammadli and other political prisoners in Azerbaijan. The resolution received 492 votes in favour, 23 against and 60 abstentions. This overwhelming majority demonstrates that the issue remains firmly on the European political agenda.
Sources: [European Parliament — Procedure 2026/2914(RSP)](https://oeil.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/en/procedure-file?reference=2026%2F2914%28RSP%29) · [HowTheyVote — Voting Results, 8 October 2026](https://howtheyvote.eu/votes/198252)
The EU’s political leadership is undoubtedly aware of the implications of the arrest of Ali Karimli, the leader of Azerbaijan’s principal opposition party, on charges widely regarded by his supporters as politically fabricated. His imprisonment represents not merely the persecution of an individual political figure, but a deliberate assault on the organisational capacity and future prospects of Azerbaijan’s democratic opposition.
The European Parliament has demonstrated that it recognises the gravity of the situation and is prepared to respond through concrete political action. International human rights organisations have also documented serious concerns about Karimli’s detention conditions and deteriorating health.
Sources: [Human Rights Watch — Azerbaijani Authorities Escalate Abuse of Detained Opposition Leader, 5 August 2026](https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/08/05/azerbaijani-authorities-escalate-abuse-of-detained-opposition-leader) · [Amnesty International — Health of Imprisoned Government Critics at Risk, 11 August 2026](https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2026/08/azerbaijan-health-of-imprisoned-government-critics-at-risk-as-another-political-activist-faces-extradition-threat/)
The issue, therefore, extends beyond Europe’s response to Azerbaijan’s domestic political situation. It concerns the extent to which the European Union is willing and able to apply its own foreign policy principles consistently.
Conditional Partnership: Ending Relations or Changing Their Terms?
Democratic conditionality is sometimes portrayed as an obstacle to strategic cooperation. According to this argument, prioritising human rights could jeopardise energy supplies, weaken diplomatic channels and encourage partner countries to move closer to competing centres of power.
Such risks should not be dismissed. Foreign policy operates within a complex environment of competing interests, regional security considerations and mutual dependencies. Severing diplomatic relations does not necessarily produce the desired results.
However, these arguments should not become a justification for postponing human rights concerns indefinitely.
The European Union does not face a binary choice between cooperation and isolation. A more coherent approach would be to maintain partnerships while linking their development to specific, measurable and independently verifiable commitments.
For example, Brussels could establish clear benchmarks in negotiations on a new agreement with Azerbaijan. These could include the release of political prisoners, the removal of restrictions on independent journalism, greater freedom for civil society organisations and stronger guarantees of fair judicial proceedings.
Such benchmarks should not remain confined to general diplomatic declarations. Their implementation should be regularly assessed, the findings made public, and failure to fulfil agreed commitments should carry clearly defined diplomatic and political consequences.
The objective should not be to dismantle relations, but to place them on a more responsible and sustainable foundation.
Double Standards and Europe’s Credibility
Europe’s most serious problem regarding democratic principles is not the absence of those principles, but the perception that they are applied selectively to different partners.
If the European Union demands democratic reforms from countries seeking membership while applying the same principles more leniently — or disregarding them altogether — in its relations with strategically important partners that do not pursue membership, its normative influence inevitably diminishes.
There are, of course, legitimate institutional differences between the EU’s enlargement policy and its Eastern Neighbourhood policy. Candidate countries are subject to specific accession criteria and monitoring mechanisms designed to ensure compliance with EU legislation and standards. Azerbaijan, by contrast, is not currently negotiating EU membership.
It is worth recalling that negotiations on an Association Agreement between Azerbaijan and the European Union began in 2010. In 2017, the parties launched negotiations on a new, more comprehensive bilateral agreement. However, in November 2019, President Ilham Aliyev publicly criticised Europe over what he described as Islamophobia and expressed his opposition to deeper European integration.
Sources: [European Commission — European Neighbourhood Policy Progress Report on Azerbaijan](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52011SC0640) · [European Commission — EU Relations with Azerbaijan](https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/countries/azerbaijan_en) · [Free Malaysia Today — Anti-Islam Europe Is No Place for Azerbaijan, Says President, 27 November 2019](https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2019/11/27/anti-islam-europe-is-no-place-for-azerbaijan-says-president)
If democracy and the rule of law are foundational principles of the European project, they should inform relations not only with prospective members but also with other countries developing extensive economic and political ties with the EU.
Otherwise, Europe risks undermining one of its most important foreign policy assets: its political credibility.
Regrettably, this approach has already contributed to a growing sense of disillusionment among Azerbaijan’s democratic circles. Europe is increasingly perceived as maintaining pragmatic cooperation with an authoritarian government while disappointing those who look to it for consistent support for democratic values.
The Implications for Democratic Forces
The approach Europe chooses has direct consequences for Azerbaijan’s democratic forces.
If closer relations between the European Union and Azerbaijan remain confined to government-to-government contacts and major economic projects, independent media, civil society organisations, opposition movements and human rights defenders risk being excluded from the practical benefits of European cooperation.
European policy should therefore extend beyond dialogue with state institutions to include meaningful engagement with society.
Support for independent journalists and human rights defenders, student and research exchanges, funding opportunities for civil society, legal protection mechanisms and systematic monitoring of political prisoners could all become central elements of such a policy.
At the same time, the objective should not be for Europe to impose a political model on Azerbaijani society from outside. Decisions concerning the country’s democratic future belong to the Azerbaijani people themselves.
Europe’s responsibility is to defend the principles that protect fundamental rights, enable political competition and create conditions for peaceful civic participation.
Such an approach would be consistent both with the European Union’s values and with Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and its people’s right to determine their own future.
Europe’s Strategic Interests Must Not Come at the Expense of a Democratic Future
The Azerbaijani case demonstrates that geopolitical interests and democratic principles need not constitute a zero-sum choice.
Europe can strengthen its energy security, develop transport connections and contribute to stability in the South Caucasus while simultaneously making the protection of human rights an integral part of its bilateral relationships.
Achieving this requires a consistent policy in three areas.
First, human rights must not be relegated to general statements issued at the conclusion of high-level meetings. They should carry political weight comparable to that of energy and security cooperation.
Second, new partnership agreements should incorporate concrete democratic benchmarks, independent monitoring and transparent accountability mechanisms. Targeted sanctions could also be considered in response to serious and well-documented violations, provided they are grounded in credible evidence and established legal procedures.
Third, while maintaining relations with governments, the European Union should expand its engagement with different sections of Azerbaijani society. Interstate cooperation should not restrict opportunities for democratic development within society; it should help strengthen them.
Ultimately, the central question facing Europe is not whether it should cooperate with Azerbaijan. It is on what principles that cooperation should be based.
Energy agreements and transport corridors may generate short-term strategic benefits. However, long-term stability, reliable partnerships and lasting peace in the region also depend on resilient political institutions, the rule of law and respect for citizens’ rights.
If the European Union wishes to present itself not only as a geopolitical actor defending its interests, but also as a political community founded on shared values, it must establish a credible balance between these two objectives.
Europe’s influence in its Eastern Neighbourhood should not be measured solely by the volume of gas it imports, the transport corridors it develops or the number of strategic agreements it concludes.
It should also be judged by the consistency with which it defends its own principles.
Establishing this balance in relations with Azerbaijan is therefore a test not only for the future of one country, but also for Europe’s broader international credibility.
Authoritarian leaders often enjoy a tactical advantage in political decision-making because power is concentrated in their hands, allowing them to act more rapidly and with fewer institutional constraints. This reality must also be considered when assessing the European Union’s efforts to promote and consolidate stable democracy in the South Caucasus.
The EU’s long-term efforts to strengthen democratic institutions can be undermined or rendered ineffective by the swift actions of authoritarian political forces. Georgia’s democratic backsliding offers a particularly instructive example.
The European Commission’s assessments have documented serious democratic deterioration in Georgia, including restrictive legislation, pressure on opposition figures and civil society, and concerns about the independence of democratic institutions.
Source: [European Commission — 2025 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy: Georgia](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/georgia/2025-communication-eu-enlargement-policy-extract-about-georgia_en?s=221)
The lesson extends beyond Georgia itself. Democratic institutions require sustained political commitment, institutional resilience and consistent international support. Without these, short-term geopolitical calculations risk undermining the very foundations of long-term regional stability.
For the European Union, the challenge is therefore not simply to manage relations with the governments of the South Caucasus, but to ensure that its strategic engagement strengthens rather than weakens the prospects for democracy across the region.
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