By Cristian Gherasim, a journalist, analyst and foreign affairs expert
While the war in Ukraine, tensions with the United States, and turmoil in the Middle East dominate headlines and strategic discourse across Europe, a more insidious threat is quietly building—largely beneath the radar—just south of the Mediterranean. The growing instability in North Africa may soon emerge as the European Union’s most acute security risk.
In Europe’s immediate neighbourhood, tensions are escalating. Conflicts and skirmishes in North Africa, which have already claimed countless lives, threaten to spill across borders and engulf the wider region. For Europe, this would present a multifaceted crisis that could severely undermine its security architecture.
The political fragility of the region provides fertile ground for jihadist groups, particularly in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, to expand their operations. These groups are increasingly adept at exploiting porous borders to create transnational networks.
The resurgence or reorganisation of terrorist entities poses a direct threat to Europe. The likelihood of such groups shifting or intensifying their focus on European targets is a growing concern that must not be underestimated.
One of the most immediate repercussions of North African instability is the surge in irregular migration. Millions have fled conflict-ridden zones, and neighbouring countries are struggling to absorb the influx of refugees. This instability fuels increasing numbers of people seeking sanctuary in Europe—often through unauthorised or dangerous routes.
Greece's Migration Minister: "Libya is using big vessels carrying 200, even 300, people. Of all those who have arrived, 85 per cent are male, and the majority of them are young. They are using Greece to enter Europe illegally for a new life.
'If we just continue to sit and…
— Pieter Cleppe (@pietercleppe) July 21, 2025
There is growing concern that Russia is exploiting this dynamic. By supporting warlords and destabilising actors in Libya, Moscow appears to be deliberately exacerbating migratory flows, thereby weaponising migration as a tool to destabilise the European Union. For the EU, this translates into heightened border pressure and the potential for internal political friction.
The spike in migratory activity across the Mediterranean has not gone unnoticed. Both Rome and Athens have raised alarms over increased Russian and Turkish involvement in the region. If left unaddressed, these threats will only intensify, rendering the EU more exposed and more vulnerable by the day.
Additionally, the Western Balkan route remains a key pathway for irregular migration into the EU. Migrants often traverse Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia before reaching EU borders. Such routes are also exploited for the trafficking of people and goods, heightening the risks of organised crime and further undermining regional security.
The ramifications of North African instability extend well beyond migration. Illicit trade—including the trafficking of counterfeit goods and contraband tobacco—poses a major economic and public health threat across the EU. The Western Balkans serve as a prominent smuggling corridor into Western Europe. These criminal networks are deeply embedded and highly adaptive, often using the same infrastructure developed for human trafficking to smuggle goods.
Counterfeit tobacco is of particular concern, both due to its health risks and the vast sums of public revenue it deprives EU member states of each year. The European Union loses billions annually to illicit trade. Greece alone loses an estimated €624 million annually due to the illicit tobacco trade. Bulgaria, meanwhile, forfeits approximately €25 million each year, and Romania faces even more troubling statistics: according to Stop Contrabanda, a website monitoring contraband cigarette busts, it loses €500 million annually, with contraband cigarettes comprising 10.1% of the total market as of March 2025.
With Romania poised to raise taxes on tobacco, the incentive to smuggle cheaper, more harmful products into the country is expected to increase significantly. Although taxation accounts for 74% of the retail price of cigarettes in Romania—placing them among the most expensive in Eastern Europe—this cost remains high relative to purchasing power. Romanian cigarette prices are now comparable to those in Italy and Spain, and notably higher than in neighbouring countries. Greece (85%), France (85%), and Ireland (84%) currently have the highest tobacco tax rates in the EU, and they host some of the largest markets for illicit cigarettes in terms of total consumption.
The growth in illicit trade reflects a broader issue: porous borders. This has serious implications not only for the EU’s economic integrity, but also for its security and cohesion as a bloc. The loss of public revenue, coupled with increased health risks and the empowerment of organised crime, makes illicit trade a high-priority threat.
Europe must confront the reality of the growing threat on its southern border. From war and terrorism to migration and smuggling, the EU possesses the diplomatic tools and financial capacity to act decisively—if it chooses to do so pre-emptively.
The EU must remain ready to negotiate with Russia-aligned Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar to prevent Vladimir Putin from further weaponizing migration, the bloc's migration chief Magnus Brunner told POLITICO.https://t.co/ilGUE1ew3A
— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) July 22, 2025
Humanitarian assistance, strategic investments, and support for civil society offer avenues through which the EU can project its soft power and foster regional stability. Supporting institutions that uphold governance and the rule of law can help prevent further descent into sectarian violence, extremism, and conflict. The development of resilient civil societies in North Africa is no longer optional—it is a strategic necessity.
In parallel, the EU must intensify its efforts to combat illicit trade. This includes tightening border controls, increasing intelligence sharing among member states, and revisiting taxation strategies to remove perverse incentives for smuggling.
Should Europe act with foresight, resolve, and unity, it may be poised to emerge as a global power—especially at a time when the United States appears increasingly inward-looking. But a failure to act decisively in its own neighbourhood could relegate Europe to geopolitical irrelevance, watching from the sidelines as other powers shape the future—while its own security and interests unravel.
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