Germany’s Chancellor Under Siege

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By former Dutch MP and MEP Derk Jan Eppink

During a weekend meeting in mid-April at Villa Borsig in Berlin, the leaders of Germany’s governing parties, the CDU/CSU and the SPD, sought to straighten things out. The opposite happened. A heated row broke out between Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) and Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil (SPD). According to Der Spiegel, Merz ‘lost his temper’, ‘shouting at’ Klingbeil.

This shouting match typifies the coalition dynamics. Merz is caught between a rock and a hard place; between the growing right-wing AfD and the left-wing coalition partner SPD, which is blocking reforms as if Berlin were a ‘Strait of Hormuz’. In the Top 20 popularity poll, Merz brings up the rear, in 20th place.

Merz is hanging on by a thread

With the promise of far-reaching reforms, Merz and his CDU/CSU were elected Chancellor on 6 May last year. An ‘Autumn of Reforms’ was to follow, but nothing happened. The new government borrowed a Sondervermögen of 500 billion euros on the capital market to modernise Germany’s infrastructure. The money is now being used to plug holes in the budget. Instead of ‘Reforms’, a ‘Reform Stagnation’ ensued; because the SPD said ‘no’. The cost of interest on the debt is rising from €4 billion in 2021 to €78 billion now. It is uncertain whether Merz would even survive a ‘vote of confidence’ in the Bundestag. He is hanging on by a thread.

Merz lacks a compass. He took the SPD by surprise with statements such as those regarding old-age provision, ‘die Rente’. Pensions in Germany, rather meagre compared to the Netherlands, should not be more than a ‘basic package’. Pensioners would have to supplement this themselves through saving and investing. The SPD was outraged: its voter base was struck at its very heart. That support is dwindling before our very eyes; the SPD is polling at around 13 per cent, just like the Greens. The CDU/CSU is slipping to 22 per cent and the AfD is rising to 28 per cent. East Germany is AfD territory.

As Merz is stuck in Berlin, he has turned his attention to foreign affairs and has been dubbed the Foreign Chancellor in the media. But he fared no better on the international stage. The war in Iran brought him into conflict with President Trump, with whom Merz was still on good terms. He called the conflict with Iran ‘not our war’ and added that Iran is ‘humiliating’ America. Trump is threatening to withdraw American troops from Germany.

Germany has no leverage over the US. Merz keeps losing. Just like his French counterpart, President Macron, who cuts a fine figure in Europe but is a clownish figure at home. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, pointed out that France feigns colonial grandeur in military operations in Africa, yet relies on American transport aircraft.

There is one area where Germany does exert direct influence: the EU. There, Germany generally protects German flagship industries. Traditionally, this has been the car industry. Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, nicknamed ‘Genosse der Bosse’ (friend of the bosses), stood squarely behind the Volkswagen Group in the state of Lower Saxony, where Schröder began his political career.

Merz finds new EU taxes unacceptable

In lobbying, Germany was usually outmanoeuvred by France. The French have their pawns in the European Commission; the Germans in the European Parliament. EU enlargement has made that pattern more complex. Merz wants to achieve in Brussels what he cannot in Berlin.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the Commission, wants a total of 2,000 billion euros for the 2028–2034 budget period; the European Parliament, like the Very Hungry Caterpillar, wants as much as 2,200 billion. In the current budget period, the figure is 1,200 billion. She is demanding new EU taxes. Merz cut straight through it: ‘unacceptable and unsellable’. Von der Leyen remained silent.

Erosion of AI legislation at European level

Germany is acting more assertively in Brussels as its own economy stagnates. For instance, Germany, together with Austria, is opposing EU legislative proposals on Artificial Intelligence (AI), calling them ‘not ambitious enough’. According to Berlin, ‘more courage’ is needed and things must be ‘simplified’. It is remarkable that Germany is effectively operating as a ‘lone wolf’.

Germany wants AI requirements not to be included in the EU’s AI legislation, but to be laid down in sector-specific legislation by the Member States. This is a wish of major German companies such as Siemens and Bosch. At least ten Member States, including the Netherlands, are opposed. Germany is, in effect, undermining AI legislation at European level.

Another issue is the €400 billion ‘Industrial Fund’, where Poland wants a broader regional distribution of projects, whilst Germany believes that most of the money should go to the most competitive and innovative projects, regardless of geographical location. Poland and Germany have opposing interests. Germany also wants a European Palantir, modelled on the American data analysis giant.

To reduce its dependence on the US, Germany is seeking closer ties with the ‘Global South’, countries such as Brazil in Latin America, plus Singapore and Australia in South-East Asia. These are ‘medium-sized countries’, intended as a counterweight. Germany is also lobbying to become a member of the UN Security Council, as a peacemaker.

Bonnie and Clyde

The SPD is also making its presence felt abroad. Klingbeil was a prominent figure at the ‘Global Progressive Mobilisation’ in Barcelona on 17 and 18 April, warning the world against ‘the rise of the far right’. That last term is a euphemism, referring to Trump and the AfD. In attendance were Brazilian President Lula da Silva, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

The organiser was Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who has cast himself as a champion of the left, a role he began during the Gaza conflict. He turned against Israel, closed the Spanish embassy there and subsequently opened a Spanish embassy in Iran. Sanchez presents himself as the ‘conscience of the left’ in Europe, whilst his wife Begoña is being prosecuted in Spain for fraud and corruption. The public prosecutor is seeking a 24-year prison sentence. The career of Sanchez and his wife resembles a Spanish version of ‘Bonnie and Clyde’.

Fatalism and stubbornness

Merz and Klingbeil cannot solve their problems in Germany through activism ‘abroad’. The crux of the matter lies in misguided policy: a planned economy and the inability to change course together. German energy and climate policy heralded economic decline, combined with excessive immigration from countries with entirely different cultures. Merz has talked himself into a corner regarding energy policy. During a visit by Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis to Berlin, Merz said: ‘Previous German governments have decided to phase out nuclear energy. That decision is irreversible.’

A fatalistic line of reasoning. Germany’s nuclear power stations have not (yet) been decommissioned, but merely shut down or closed. Some, such as the KKE Emsland in Lingen just across the Dutch border, could perhaps be brought back into operation. But the political courage is lacking. Merz effectively believes: German governments have wrongly closed nuclear power stations. That was a mistake, but there is nothing to be done about it. We are continuing undeterred down the wrong path. In short: German ‘stubbornness’.

The feuding duo Merz-Klingbeil put on a tough front abroad but are ‘tote Hose’ at home. Anyone who compares the political map of Germany with the geographical one will see that East Germany largely votes for the AfD and West Germany is politically fragmented, with a rising AfD in the mix. There is still a wall; not physical but mental.

‘Merz’s pain’

Columnist Harald Martenstein recently wrote in the Welt am Sonntag: ‘The GDR had a system of party bigwigs who were cut off from the “outside” and primarily concerned with retaining power and engaging in intrigues “inside”. In the GDR, work was simulated, nothing new was created and problems were camouflaged, until it was no longer possible.’

This autumn, there are three East German state elections: the city-state of Berlin, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. With the AfD leading in the latter two.

The ‘Schmerz of Merz’ continues. The question is: for how much longer?


Originally published in Dutch on Wynia’s Week 

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