The new Dutch coalition agreement is detached from reality

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D66 leader Rob Jetten (Copyright: Vrij te gebruiken ovv: Martijn Beekman / D66, Attribution, via Wikimedia Commons)

By Derk Jan Eppink, a former Dutch MP and MEP

The coalition agreement of the proposed new Dutch minority cabinet led by Rob Jetten (picture – D66 – Renew Europe) uses balanced language, except for the chapters on Europe and relations with America. These passages are characterised by pompous enthusiasm, with D66’s fingerprints all over them.

During the short-lived D66 opposition, an urgent need apparently arose, fuelled by anti-American sentiments. According to the agreement between  D66, VVD (Renew Europe) and CDA (EPP), the Netherlands must be the “driving force” behind a powerful European Union. “By reducing our unilateral dependencies and building a European pillar within NATO, we can credibly address the US and other major powers when their actions affect our fundamental values and interests”.

“Leading the way”

The Netherlands (once again) as a guide in Europe and the world. Strategy: “leading the way”, “in the leading group”; or better still: at the “head of the leading group”. The pen holder, and with it the new coalition, does not realise that a “special status” in NATO suits Moscow perfectly and that even the current administration in Washington DC does not mind “Europe” going it alone financially.

In addition, the question arises as to how capable Europe is of expressing a single position, let alone taking independent military action. A NATO without the US is a dead horse. “Europe” is in fact a “géométrie variable” with numerous member states with very diverse opinions. Nevertheless, the coalition agreement advocates “establishing new strategic cooperation outside Europe and the US”.

The result will be that the current administration in Washington will ignore Article 5 of NATO, the heart of the Treaty, and say, “figure it out for yourselves”. And what partnerships are there? Large parts of the “third world” are already under China’s influence. India is keeping all options open as a neutral, non-aligned country that maintains workable relations with all power blocs. In short, what the coalition agreement claims is complete nonsense.  

Unworldly

Another incongruity is the sentence: “Ukraine is on an irreversible path towards EU and NATO membership”. EU membership is possible, via the European Union’s procedures, starting as a candidate country, and there is usually a transition period. This was the case when the Baltic and Central and Eastern European states joined as a group in 2004. Romania and Bulgaria followed a few years later. It remains to be seen whether these countries will welcome Ukraine’s (rapid) accession. Unanimity is required for the admission of a new member state. All current member states must agree.

Even more unrealistic is NATO membership for Ukraine. That may be desirable, but NATO’s expansion towards Ukraine is one of the causes of the Russian attack in 2022, however reprehensible. In the negotiations between America and Russia, there is one indisputable condition: Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. Anyone who claims otherwise sees the coalition agreement as a piece of paper written by politicians with an overestimation of their own abilities and a lack of political and historical insight.

Fantasy

The coalition agreement states that the Netherlands “also takes a constructive stance on European nuclear deterrence”. Again, this is fantasy. France is the only country in the EU with nuclear weapons. It has approximately 300 nuclear warheads. Russia has an estimated 6,500. France pretends to be able to defend itself independently of the US. That is an illusion. French weaponry does not always have the necessary quality. The “force de frappe” seems more like a “force de farçe”.

In 2009, France joined NATO’s military command structure and came under the American nuclear umbrella. Moscow is not deterred by French nuclear power, which, according to the coalition agreement, is supposed to constitute the “European nuclear deterrent”. In fact, the attempt to do so is leading to a decoupling from the US, which is exactly what Moscow wants, and is testing. What will the French nuclear umbrella do if Russia occupies part of Estonia? Nothing!

Out of nowhere, the coalition agreement advocates the Netherlands’ accession to the 2019 “Aachen Treaty” (Aachener Vertrag). This is a continuation of earlier post-war agreements between Germany and France. The signing of that Treaty was attended by the presidents of the European Council and the European Commission. What should the Netherlands do in that Treaty? Germany is not joining the Benelux, is it? It is striking that the VVD and CDA are not curbing their coalition partner D66’s childish activism. Germany and France have a historically fraught relationship. No Tom Thumb is needed for that.

Arrogant and counterproductive

As far as the European Union is concerned, the language used is ludicrous. Under the heading “Europe and the world”: ‘We are taking tough action against countries that actively undermine Europe, such as Hungary and Slovakia, by pushing for the simplification of the Article 7 procedure in Europe so that countries can more easily be deprived of their voting rights. Hungary will lose its right to European funding. In Europe, we are committed to abolishing unanimous decision-making in the common foreign and security policy’.

The attitude of the Jetten coalition is arrogant and completely counterproductive. I wish her every success in her attempts to amend the Treaty, which requires unanimity. Anyone who breaks open the Treaty now will not be able to close it again. Most Central and Eastern European Member States will oppose this centralist mentality, which smacks of that of the Soviet Union. Moscow regularly “reprimanded” its “part and satellite states” that now belong to the EU. Such an attitude strikes a “sensitive chord”. The only thing missing is the march of a “European Army” to Budapest, led by a D66 general.

America remains indispensable

The coalition also advocates purchasing as many weapons as possible from European NATO countries. That sounds logical, but it is not easy. In the period 2015-2019, European NATO countries imported 52% of their weapons purchases from the US. In the period 2020-2024, that figure was 64%, partly as a result of the war in Ukraine. America will remain indispensable to the European arms arsenal in the near future. Think of the F-35. If Europe frustrates that, it will be left empty-handed. Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, has confirmed this, albeit theatrically. America is unrivalled when it comes to defence equipment.

The upcoming coalition resembles a group of dreamers who do not know their classics. Before the Treaty of Lisbon, ratified in 2009, the European Constitution, which was supposed to give the EU a “state federal basic structure”, was rejected in 2005. The aim was to “deepen” the EU (further integration) in order to constitutionally anchor “enlargement”: more power to Brussels. The British, on the other hand, advocated faster enlargement, including Turkey, in order to thwart deepening. Belgian politicians, federalists through and through, wanted deepening first.

France and the Netherlands rejected the European constitution, after which enlargement and deepening were pursued simultaneously. Ultimately, with the arrival of Central and Eastern European countries, enlargement won out over deepening. “Europe” became a construction with a “géométrie variable”. And the European Union became a patchwork quilt of rules and powers, depending on socio-economic and cultural sensitivities.

Self-interest

The CDA and VVD should know better, but if D66 wants to impose its vision with its prime minister, it will divide the European Union along political and cultural lines rather than unite it. The American claim to Greenland demonstrated this. Northern and Western European countries were angry and sent a “delegation”. Southern Europe tempered its response and Eastern Europe did nothing. With this coalition agreement, D66 is damaging the European faith it worships, insofar as D66 ranks still pray.

As prime minister, Rob Jetten will soon enough encounter the harsh realities in Europe that will make him realise that there is no greater interest in Europe than self-interest.

Originally published in Dutch by Wynia’s Week

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