“Growing skepticism of the EU Green Deal is putting pressure on the European Commission”

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BrusselsReport.eu
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EU Matrix, an award-winning tech-driven political foresight tool, has published a new data intelligence report, looking at the economic policy positions taken by the respective political groups in the European Parliament.

It thereby notes that “the European Commission’s recent decision to withdraw the Green Claims proposal is a further indication of the mounting pressure on the ”EU Executive” to recalibrate its policy agenda in response to shifting electoral priorities.”

One of the key findings is that “right-wing parties are expanding their political relevance by integrating economic concerns—such as inflation and production costs—into their agenda, capitalising on voter unease with the short-term costs of the green transition. This marks a shift from their traditional sovereignty-based focus and has opened new space for electoral growth.

This shift is driven by a widening gap between the EU’s long-term climate agenda—anchored in Commission policy—and the electorate’s more immediate cost-of-living priorities. As green measures began to show visible economic side effects, particularly amid geopolitical shocks, mainstream parties faced growing pressure to adapt.”

However, the report stresses that also “mainstream centrist parties, including the EPP, Renew, and S&D, have responded with recalibrated positions, often supporting climate goals while challenging specific instruments.”

Notably, EU Matrix has therefore developed a dedicated “climate–cost of living index based on 36 key votes”, to “capture the climate–cost of living trade-off and how the parties are weighing these priorities.”

EU Matrix notes that “intra-group variation is visible across EPP, Renew, and S&D, with delegations from France, Poland, Romania, and Germany diverging from the more climate-ambitious positions of their peers.”

It furthermore highlights how “right-wing groups remain the most vocal opponents of current environmental regulation, especially Sverigedemokraterna (ECR, Sweden), Lega (PfE, Italy), Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (ECR, Poland), Vox (PfE, Spain), among others. Their language is strong, and their political agenda revolves around major deregulation—calling for the abandonment of the ICE ban, the removal of environmental conditions in agriculture or restrictions on non-green energy sources.”  

Finally, the report also features a vote projection for the next European Parliament election, in 2029, noting how “the strategy seems to be paying off according to our latest projections. If EU elections were held this week, the groups on the fringes (especially Patriots and ESN), would gain further ground, to the detriment of the centrist camp and the Greens.”

According to EU Matrix, the consequences of these shifts in sentiment are already affecting EU policy, as “the electorate’s pressure is reshaping institutional dynamics as well. With domestic political capital under strain, many governments and MEPs are reorienting their focus toward national priorities, often at the expense of broader EU goals. In the Council, CEE Member States consistently resist the more ambitious climate agendas advanced by North-Western governments. In the European Parliament, right-wing and fringe groups are escalating their scrutiny of the Commission—not only through amendments but also through a surge in written questions, reflecting a strategy to challenge the Commission at every stage. At the same time, they are ramping up pressure through social media, using platforms like X (Twitter) to engage directly with their electorate and amplify criticism.

In the EP, the rising importance of the parties to the right of EPP is becoming visible, and ECR has emerged as a key beneficiary of this shift: its amendment success rate has increased significantly (currently above that of the Greens), and its proposals are no longer confined to cultural or sovereignty issues. Some of these amendments focus on economic regulation, cost alleviation, and the revision of climate obligations. This repositioning enables ECR (and even others to their right) to appeal to a broader electorate, including business owners and sectoral actors who perceive mainstream parties as either unresponsive or too slow to adapt to new realities such as supply chain disruptions, tariff instability, and inflation.”

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